I.T.T.T.

Real Estate

I had a really interesting conversation with a software designer this morning. We talked about the social interaction of users with their software, which was an interesting enough topic, but then I raised a thought I'd had last night (OK, Fine! Yes, I was having a beer at the time....... but even so.....).   


There's a computer expression used, I think, in coding: "If This Then That". I've designed political polls and general surveys over a number of years. Sometimes, when you write a question, you know there are different possible answers:  
 
(a) Yes,  
(b) No,  
(c) Maybe,  
(d) I Don't Know.  
 
In that case you put instructions for the poll taker: [If YES go to question #8] [If NO go to question #15] If MAYBE go to question #8] and so forth. In other words: If This Then That. 


My question for the software designer was this: "Can the 'that' come before the 'this?' In other words, can a computer foresee that someone will take action C, rather than A or B,  and move ahead accordingly? Because this is a thought process I, as a strategic marketer and as a negotiator do this all the time. I anticipate that someone will do B if I do A, but will do D if I do C, so I do A because it's better for my client if the other sides does B rather than D. 
I was told by my software designer buddy that speedy computers today can't foresee, but can run a large number of scenarios that it has learned already, calculate the chances of each scenario, then see – based on moves made so far by the human -- which scenario the human is pursuing, and the computer can act accordingly in anticipation of what further moves will be executed. This is basically how computers have become able to beat humans, first in Cheess, and then – even more amazingly – in the Japanese strategic game of GO. 


Real estate is much less complicated than the game of GO, or even Chess, but on the other hand the consequences of the different outcomes are normally much more costly emotionally and financially than the board games. 
Still, the ability to understand the human dynamics underlying a real estate transaction, and, based on that, the ability to foresee the likely scenarios and to plan strategies for them is something you might want in the real estate broker you hire to represent you.  


Agents can learn about strategy, and it will probably improve their performance on behalf of their clients, but the truth is, some people instinctively have a strategic turn of mind, and some don't. Napoleon was born with it; Giap studied Napoleon, but the Vietnamese wars against first the French, then the Americans were full of surprises for him, to the great cost of his country and people, despite their ultimate success. So if you don't want to sort of win more or less by accident, look for that strategic turn of mind in your broker. 


Soyez heureux -- DeVallon